Monday, December 22, 2008

a (my) new renaissance

Alright, apologies for such a depressing post earlier. Anyhoo, let's continue regardless of the losses, tomorrow's another day another opportunity! it's only habitual guys, the life of a bully!

I am still very impressed by how well the markets have moved and shown bear resilience the past few weeks. The argument again is whether or not the rally will continue into the new year despite all the negative factors. So are we bottomed out? have stocks dropped to levels that have already priced in all the bad news past,present and future? hard to call. But some obvious factors to keep an eye on are: Obama, post holiday retail results/forecasts, OIL, unemployment, real estate stabilization (and commercial r.e's near term forecast), renegotiation of corp. debts (most recently Macy's), tracking TARPs 2nd half and effects of the 1st(thus far), foreign macro, and global consumer micro! I know broad, broad issues but all very pertinent am I wrong?

The renegotiations between a company and their financier is CRUCIAL. Reforming leases, rates, payment schedules terms and so forth could help certain sectors experience turn around at a much faster pace. In a sense, the TARP and other bailouts should spawn extended hands to companies that deal with the original beneficiaries. Complex? fuck yeah, possible? of course. and I'm sure corp phone lines, conference rooms and contract drafters are VERY BUSY these days.

The scary part in all this is the following: All companies have and are in a probation period, and ONLY the strong SHOULD survive. There's little room for companies who have been breathing off the "spoof" side of the economy and in Jeffrey Gundlach's words the "bogadollars" (bogus dollars). I wouldn't want my money to be caught with the companies that will be filtered out in 09.

A new renaissance as I am going to call it, to bridge and fuse together the fundamental drive of capitalism with the new take on corporate responsibility. Gov, Wall street and Corp.s need leaders of the new school, remember these are the guys who pass the baton down to average investors, consumers, you and me. Does my article make sense now? I hope so. I'll be posting my personal stock picks tonight or tomorrow but I want to leave you with this image. To address the $50+ Billion Madoff Scandal and to the new renaissance...don't get played like a harp playa(z)! cheers - J the hot revolver. ***OFFICIAL WEBSITE BULLYBANK.COM COING SOON!***

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