Tuesday, December 9, 2008

One Last Hurrah for DRYS?


DRYS closed up 31% today, after closing up 51% yesterday. Notice the volume at 73 million shares, or roughly 2.5 times the float. Something really weird is going on here because the company hasn't released ANY news. Granted the entire dry bulk shipping sector rallied today it still doesn't explain the run that DRYS has been having.

I am holding on to a huge put position in DRYS and I'll outline how badly I'm getting raped on this trade:

Bought OOCXZ at $30
Current Value = $0

Bought OOCXA at $113
Current Value = $20

So, now that you feel my pain, let's discuss why I'm not tossing my monitor out of the window in a fit of rage. The most important point: NOTHING has changed. The company has come out with no news, no plan, not a word to justify this movement. This leads me to believe there is either hardcore manipulation going on (I'm not bitter, this stuff happens all the time) or value investors caused shorts to cover this stock up so much. Spot rates still remain near their lows and the BDI is not climbing with stock indexes.

The only thing that worries me is my timing, I might have pulled the trigger too soon on this company. My puts expire on December 19th, giving me 10 days to realize a profit and 10 days for DRYS to come out with bad news. Anything is possible.

My puts on Chesapeake Energy didn't move too much today as the stock didn't see any significant movement. Natural gas moved up slightly today but as you can see from the futures there is not huge upside movement predicted any time soon. I'm going to salvage what I can by holding on to my position and hopefully selling for a minimized loss.

Trading in this market really requires an iron stomach and an open mind. These past two days have been a huge test of my nerves. I've done my research and continue to look in to these two companies as much as I can. For me, it's not all about the money but more about being right and if I am wrong, I need to know why. In the case of DRYS I cannot find a reason. With CHK I doubted their options and liquidity position but still believe the stock can see some downside. Remember, if your not buying it, it makes sense to sell it.

Let's see what tomorrow has in store for us. Futures right now are pointing to a higher open but that can easily change over night.

Cheers.

-Nik

No comments: