Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Anoher Wild Day

Markets were extremely volatile today but ended higher. I was holding on to AXP NOV 17.5 Strike Puts, DRYS NOV 7.5 Strike Puts, and bought a solid amount of ANF NOV 15 Strike Puts. All my positions were up and down a lot today. My AXP puts closed in the black, my DRYS puts closed in the black, and my ANF puts closed at break even.

There was a plethora of information released today. Starting with the resignation of Jerry Yang as CEO of Yahoo!. Investors have been waiting for this day for months and the stock rallied ending the day up 8%. This leaves the door wide open for another offer from rival Microsoft and will put YHOO Dec. calls in play. I'll let you guys know if I decide to make a move.

Hewlett-Packard soared today, closing up 14%, after the company reportedit's earnings would be better than expected and forecast solid guidance for the fourth quarter. While other tech bellwethers have slashed forecasts and have seen their earnings decline, HPQ bucked the trend, reviving investor sentiment in the company.

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernake testified in front of Senators this morning justifying their reasoning behind the change in TARP. Paulson said no funds would be used to buy bad mortgage assets, rather the money would go to stimulating consumer demand by buying securitizedcredit card loans, student loans, and auto loans. Hankson also said that no TARP money should be used to bail out auto makers. We learned absolutely nothing new here.

At 3PM eastern time, CEOs from the Big Three automakers and the head of the United Auto Workers (UAW) union testified in front of a Senate committee in hopes of receiving a bailout. The automakers had to convince the Senators that systemic risk was an issue that would cripple the U.S. economy if any of them filed for bankruptcy. They failed at doing this and managed to show that any fall out from a major automaker going bankrupt would only affect the auto industry. I would not expect our government to write them a blank check based of today's testimony.

Today was a tough day, one that tested the amount of faith I have in my ideas. I've learned that good ideas, that are well researched, make great strategies and you always stick to your strategy unless there is a material change that affects your positions. I stuck to my strategy today and believe that it will pay off. It's options expiration week, which means that all of my puts will expire on Friday and unless they're in the money, they'll expire worthless. My plan is to sell all of my positions on Thursday - at the latest. I will sell at a gain or loss but I have to get rid of these before Friday or the trade will be worthless.

Tomorrow is looking to be another crazy day, so keep that seat belt fasten and hopefully we'll see some solid gains tomorrow.

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