Monday, November 24, 2008

W T F Mate?

I'm sitting around last night relaxing after a hard night's partying and I decided to turn on CNBC. I wasn't expecting much, maybe a special about Taco Bell, or another story on GM, what I got was live coverage from New York on Citigroup. The coverage was centered around a government bailout of the firm, even as Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit told investors on FRIDAY the firm has enough capital to survive on it's own.

Last time I checked well capitalized firms didn't require government assistance.

Markets rallied off the news with the S&P 500 posting gains of 6.47%, or 52 points. The Citigroup bail out is a sign that the end of this financial crisis is still far away. Big financial firms can still fail and the government will have to spend a lot more money bailing them out. As the economy dips deeper in to recession, we're almost certain to see the markets pull back again.

I bought calls on Citigroup on Friday (CLQ) because I was expecting to get good news over the weekend. The calls appreciated well today but still have a bit to go. I'll let you guys know when I sell them.

My other trade today was buying calls on DRYS (OOCLA). I think this was a mistake because I don't think DRYS is going to continue to rally. My original plan was to buy them mid-day and sell them at the end of the day. As the rally got more intense, DRYS lost momentum, which was not a good sign. I decided to hold on to them in case the market continues it's uptrend or DRYS comes out with some good news - I won't be holding my breath.

The DRYS trade is a good example of how careful traders have to be in this environment. I acted on impulse, not sound decision making, and might pay the price for it. If I do, I will definitely chalk it up to a good lesson learned and will work on not making the same mistake again.

See you guys tomorrow!

-Nik

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