Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Facing a loss, and moving on.

Okay, okay. The harsh reality behind investing is when you realize you've made a mistake that has lead to a loss. My options are set to expire this friday and are worth NOTHING right now. Let me perhaps break this down in retrospect.

1. SOL saw a sell off of 50% in just 2 days last week as the sector got hammered. CSIQ down 35% in the same 2 days (no news, but negative sentiment)
At this point the Nov. Call Options were between .25 to a .10 cent a piece. (easy opportunity to double your money if the stocks rebounded enough)

2. I knew a market rebound would generally lead to a solar sector bounce, and these stocks move in high percentages (15%+ or - a day is easy)

3. We were headed toward the G20 meeting last week, (anticipating some positive market reaction)

4. Along with anticipating the markets to pop up before the G20, I figured earnings were scheduled and the CSIQ/SOL were both oversold. I bought the Nov. $10s and Nov. $7.50s respectively.

5. When we saw the market pop up 500+ last week on thursday, CSIQ bounced up 18% and SOL up 30%. At one point my options were up %50+ each, I expected the trend to continue up onto friday so I held (mistake). What happened friday? we closed down 300 pts. This was crucial...I needed CSIQ/SOL to be positioned at $7 and $5 respectively, they closed friday at $6.31 and $4.35. (2 day weekend automatically devalues the options as starting monday nov. 17th, the options had 5 days to live. EXTRENSIC VALUE)

So as of today (Tuesday Nov. 18th) all my options are worth NOTHING, I'd be lucky to get a nickel bid per contract at this point.

Another lesson learned, I told my partner this morning I am reverting back to basics for awhile...this was a risky investment on my part but again the GREED factor is what murdered me this week. Cheers, and remember learn to differentiate WALL ST. from the VEGAS STRIP, or you might have a rude awakening haha. - JOTTI
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