Act right ... (on the radar)

Before we all go put on our 2009 party caps and tiaras, I'm looking into where I'm putting my chips into the coming 1st quarter. If you take a look back, both Nik and I were talking very doomsdayish when the global markets had a slight rally going into December (auto bailouts, global cookie cut financial stimulus', and schizophrenic investors.) Unfortunately my timing I believe was off, but my views have not changed much since. Obviously not a huge fan of retailers, commercial R.E and healthcare right now. The important thing is being able to spot which of these companies are the most vulnerable... right now. Commercial real estate has been anticipated to get hit as companies downsize, renegotiate for lower leases etc, and hell if you can't pay your credit cards and mortgage payments why the fuck would you pay the insanely expensive hospital bills? I got to look more closely at the healthcare sector as those companies have been hacked hard too.

Coming off such a drastic trading year, I'm looking to revise my watch lists as 2008 comes to an end. Keeping a steady eye on commercial real estate: SPG,JLL,CBG, hospitals: LPNT, CYH, and certain clothing brands like true religion jeans, abercrombie. I am still interested in where the hell the video game sector is headed too, I admit I was dead wrong with my short term sentiment on activision but they are better positioned then ERTS, TTWO imo.

Bare with us as my partner is on vacation enjoying Bali (you bastard! haha), I'll be less active with posts (until 2009) as we're prepping the final touches to BULLYBANK.COM, The world will get a better idea of just exactly what the F we're all about LOL! I hope you guys have a great NYE.

- cheers the hot revolver.

MERRY CHRISTMAS BULLIES! 2008 on the I V

We hope everyone had a great christmas regardless of the heavy grinch presence this year. I for one was just happy to beable to spend time with friends and fam and recap what a life changing calendar it has been. Who else basked in the glory of working on the 25th? haha nothing beats chauffeuring clients around to window shop property on xmas day! Anyhow, Merry Xmas and we are expected to launch www.bullybank.com come January 1st! A new year means new money! cheers - the hot revolver

Let's Talk About Quarter 1 of 2009

Things are looking bleak for the first quarter of next year. Today marked the fifth straight day of declines for the Dow Jones Industrial average, which historically rises 0.7% in the days leading up to the holidays. The release of horrible economic data in the past five days shows the economy plunging deeper in to recession.

GDP data released today showed a 0.5% contraction in the U.S. economy last quarter. Last quarter was relatively peaceful compared to the current quarter, which is a horrible sign because the real fall out of the financial crisis is being felt now. Some economists expect fourth quarter GDP to be as dismal as -6%. If it comes in that high, it's going to be a long time before our economy, along with the rest of the world, recovers.

Too add insult to injury we're now seeing modified mortgages default. This means that the lender has re-negotiated with the borrower to sweetened the terms of the loan, and the borrower still can't pay. This points us to further deterioration in the housing markets.

It's really simple, we're not going to see an economic recovery until housing prices stabilize and credit loosens up. The fact that we're seeing housing values drop at Depression rates is tough enough but add to that a credit freeze that still haunts financial markets, which ultimately affects businesses, and we're in for a very tought first quarter.

We've seen a lot of companies initiate mass layoffs this quarter and will see more jobs lost in the coming months. This means less spending in our economy and with tighter consumer credit standards people are going to be strapped for money. The big three are still not in the clear after their bailout, bond yields on GM and F debt still price in bankruptcy, which would mean a lot of jobs lost. Not to mention more government funds down the drain.

So, with all this this and a gloomy first quarter to look forward to, I see no reasons right now to buy stocks. I'm still going to be in sell mode until I see a stabilization in the housing markets. We might see a rally as the new administration gets sworn in but that won't last more than a couple days and will be an excellent opportunity to enter in to new short positions.

I bought Jan. 5 Puts on DRYS this morning as I feel the end is near with this company (no, I'm not obsessed!). The CEO seems to be up to his old shady tricks which lead his previous company to, yep you guess it, bankruptcy.

George Economou, the brilliant CEO of DryShips, owns a private company called Cardiff Marine. DRYS would buy ships from Cardiff all the time and entered in to contracts to buy more ships this year. Every time DRYS cancels a contract it pays Cardiff a cancellation fee. Care to guess whose pocket that fee goes too? Better yet, care to guess whose pocket the fee comes from? It seems as if Georgy thinks it's ok to rape the public company in order to fill his pockets.

Did I mention he's a billionaire who has already bankrupted one public company? It's amazing to be how much money has been pumped in to this stock (DRYS) and yet the writing is on the wall. It's merely a matter of time before the company defaults on a loan, or issues more equity further diluting common share holders, or their counter parties start to cancel contracts. Either way it doesn't look good and I definitely want to be positioned to profit off the event that causes this stock to tank.

The rest of this week should be pretty chill as Wall St. gets fully in to holiday mode (yea, no premium whiskey in the punch this year!) and, your boy Nik, takes a well deserved vacation to Bali! I'll be there until Jan. 3rd, 2009. I'll definitely be in touch with the markets but the focus is going to be on the three B's: beer, b*tches, and beaches...haha. Whaaaa??? I haven't taken a vacation in almost two years!!

-Nik

P.S. - The FULL SITE: WWW.BULLYBANK.COM COMING SOON!!!

SMH...things getting out of hand.

a damn shame...Madoff related Suicide on Wall Street.

a (my) new renaissance

Alright, apologies for such a depressing post earlier. Anyhoo, let's continue regardless of the losses, tomorrow's another day another opportunity! it's only habitual guys, the life of a bully!

I am still very impressed by how well the markets have moved and shown bear resilience the past few weeks. The argument again is whether or not the rally will continue into the new year despite all the negative factors. So are we bottomed out? have stocks dropped to levels that have already priced in all the bad news past,present and future? hard to call. But some obvious factors to keep an eye on are: Obama, post holiday retail results/forecasts, OIL, unemployment, real estate stabilization (and commercial r.e's near term forecast), renegotiation of corp. debts (most recently Macy's), tracking TARPs 2nd half and effects of the 1st(thus far), foreign macro, and global consumer micro! I know broad, broad issues but all very pertinent am I wrong?

The renegotiations between a company and their financier is CRUCIAL. Reforming leases, rates, payment schedules terms and so forth could help certain sectors experience turn around at a much faster pace. In a sense, the TARP and other bailouts should spawn extended hands to companies that deal with the original beneficiaries. Complex? fuck yeah, possible? of course. and I'm sure corp phone lines, conference rooms and contract drafters are VERY BUSY these days.

The scary part in all this is the following: All companies have and are in a probation period, and ONLY the strong SHOULD survive. There's little room for companies who have been breathing off the "spoof" side of the economy and in Jeffrey Gundlach's words the "bogadollars" (bogus dollars). I wouldn't want my money to be caught with the companies that will be filtered out in 09.

A new renaissance as I am going to call it, to bridge and fuse together the fundamental drive of capitalism with the new take on corporate responsibility. Gov, Wall street and Corp.s need leaders of the new school, remember these are the guys who pass the baton down to average investors, consumers, you and me. Does my article make sense now? I hope so. I'll be posting my personal stock picks tonight or tomorrow but I want to leave you with this image. To address the $50+ Billion Madoff Scandal and to the new renaissance...don't get played like a harp playa(z)! cheers - J the hot revolver. ***OFFICIAL WEBSITE BULLYBANK.COM COING SOON!***

back to square 1 ( -99.9% portfolio value) applied for McDonalds

*the day has come, options expire, portfolio annihilated,

*Literally applied for and rejected by Mcdonalds. (click below for full pic)


exactly 600 transactions in 2008 involving the following co.s: LDK,TSL,AOB,STV,VRTX,WFC,ENOC,CROX,ZLC,SBUX,TASR,YHOO,CSIQ,JASO,SOL,WM,WB,UBS,AIG,CC,SNDK,CC,CBG VZ,ANF,ATVI,EFUT,BX,FFCH,MVIS,LQDT,PALM,TZOO,DESC,XRTX,CHL,EDU,STP,LQDT,SSRX,XING... to add insult to injury, the escrow on my client's deal is dead as of yesterday evening, due to the loan not being approved..smh..life of the self employed is rough sometimes haha. *PLEASE proceed to reading the great article about APPLE my partner has written* - cheers the hot revolver
As we come to the close of 2 0 0 8, I push the button...a new year, a new start.

So..what's Steve Jobs next job?

Steve could be a yoga instructor! Maybe a cult leader? I kid, I kid...

This week Apple Inc. announced it would no longer be attending MacWorld (press release). The other kicker was that Steve Jobs is not going to be a key note speaker at MacWorld. Instead, Apple is sending Philip Schiller, Apple’s senior vice president of Worldwide Product Marketing, instead of Jobs.

The moves makes sense, as Apple clearly wants to stay away from Trade Shows and focus more on direct customer channels. The buzz surrounding the news is regarding the clear transition of power that is happening within the company. Job's health has been questioned for months now and his withdrawal from the key note speech could be a sign of bad health. The company is possibly entering a restructuring phase and looking for a replacement.

Being a fundamental trader, it's hard to get excited about a company when it's star CEO appears to be in his final years. It's never wise to invest in a company whose future relies on a star. If Job's leaves, there is no more hope for Apple stock, the thing will tank like Russell Peters at the MTV Movie Awards. This part is all speculation and not something I'd be interesting in basing a trade off but it definitely deserves mention as it has future potential.

What does make sense is declining Mac desktop sales and the worst retail environment this country has seen in decades. Apple's retail sales accounted for 21.8% of revenue in their fourth quarter of 2008. Desktop sales were 16.7% of total revenue for 4Q2008. We are entering the age of the laptop but desktops are still used in businesses and homes.

Apple also is getting hurt by the ridiculous prices PC makers are offering for their laptops and desktops. You can get a nice Sony Vaio now for $500 yet a basic MacBook costs double that. Apple's customer base is extremely loyal and willing to shell out the dough for a premium product in a regular environment. In this environment it would be shocking if Apple's sales grew at prior levels, especially if they're not willing to lower prices.

With that in mind the company issued guidance for the December quarter of $9.0 to $10 billion in revenue and EPS between $1.06 and $1.35. This is a broad range on purpose. The company admitted in last quarters conference call that this current environment is too hard to call. I don't think that Apple will miss but if revenue, or EPS, comes in on the lower end of that range the stock should sell off. If there's one thing the stock is known for it's drastic movements off rumors, scares, or downright negative speculation.

We're going to use this to our advantage. I opened a tiny put position in Apple yesterday and plan on adding to it in the coming days. I think it's time for this company to face reality and for the stock price to reflect it.

Cheers,

Nik

FEDs Cut Rate between ZIP & a Quarta'!

In their continued effort to help revive the economy off life support, the feds have cut the overnight fed funds rate between banks to zero/.25%. This is a historic low, the previous being set was 1%. The way this is to work is for banks to eventually pass the discounted rate onto the consumer & business loans they make to the general public. *Problem is, many rates are as low as they are willing to go in some circumstances. This is to help loosen available money, lower rates charged and hopefully encourage the circulation of money via spending, in other words they need people to un-stitch their wallets, polish their atm cards (credit cards preferred) and BUY BUY BUY! HURRY UP AND BUY! *My opinion is this: The abrupt and severe collapse of the credit system the past year calls for complete reform, reform of capitalistic America as a whole. Some of you might be *eeewed away by this statement or confused, but I sincerely mean it, we can't go back to the old spending habits (for awhile), that's only going to prolong the inevitable, the system has flaws, please fucking change it. I see this as one of the last tricks in the bag from the Feds, hopefully it works. Biggie's song Mo' money Mo' problems never seemed so relevant, '09 show me the money - cheers the hot revolver.

*deep breathes...* time-out from our reality into the super elite's reality (Dayaam!)

Although we here at BullyBank are having one of the worst weeks of our trading "careers" and although my portfolio is well on it's way to closing this year at a value of $19.97 (no typo, I will post a screen shot the day of), I wanted to reiterate one of the most ridiculous and affluent travel packages revealed this year, being offered even amongst the global financial rut! where? the only place on earth that seems to be immune and regression proof, DUBAI of course! Introducing the first $1million dollar travel package (1 weeks worth! trip for 2) courtesy of the Emirates Palace in Abu Dhabi, Dubai!

The suite (sweet) package includes: first-class airline tickets, a chauffeur-driven Maybach, a personal butler, daily spa treatments, private jet charter (for the week),jetting to Iran to weave Persian rugs, and dive for deep sea pearls, which then will be used for your own custom designed jewelry. Royal golf experience and
make your own perfume with experts from YAS Perfume. $1million dollars for 1 week, that equates to spending $100 per minute. SMH, amazing what dreams are made of, and what we are chasing after. - cheers the hot revolver Check out the Virtual Tour >
EMIRATESPALACEvirtualtour

From a Benz to a Datsun

Yea, it's like a backwards Kanye West track. DRYS is up approximately 82% since December 8th - I don't think I've ever received a swifter kick in the..yea you get it.

I can understand a stock being up 82% in a week because the company just came out with some stellar bit of news and their worries are now behind them. I can understand a stock being up 82% in a week because of a buyout at a premium to the market price. I can even understand a stock being up 82% in a week because of rumors being fed through malicious channels.

When none of those things happen, I can't understand why DRYS is up so much. People can point to valuation all they want, the grim reality here is that valuation is based of earnings, when a company is projected to not have earnings there is no way properly value them. Better yet, when bankruptcy is a serious consideration valuation generally means the amount of pennies on the dollar that are left.

This is the world that we live in and of course, I overlooked something. One of my favorite books of all time (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator) mentions repeatedly that traders should not fight the tape. There is no point in fighting the tape, rather try to go along with it.

For the past week now, I've been in a vicious fight with the tape. Of course, it has cost me a lot of money. I should have sold off my put options on DRYS on the first day that it rallied. I kept on telling myself that I know this company, I know it's fate, I know where it's headed and this is just a fools rally.

I discounted timing, big time. The company could be headed for Chapter 11 but for the time being it looks as if it's going to be trading in a range of $7-$11 until we receive news from the company itself. The stock would have to go down 60-70% in order for me to make a profit - don't worry, I'm not holding my breathe.

November was a picture perfect month. December is turning out to be the worst trading month of my life and all because of a huge position in DRYS. My put options expire on December 19th (also my birthday - what an awesome present!), so we still have four days for the stock to tank.

I'll post up my thoughts on this and the lessons learned as the week goes on. This is going to require a serious assessment of what went wrong and how we can prevent this from happening going forward.

For now, I'll be laying in the fetal position on my bed, lol.

See you guys tomorrow. Dow futures currently down 9 points, S&P 500 futures down 12.5.

-Nik

Hip to the Hop to the Hippity Flop! damn...celebs closing shop...

So what do hip hop pioneer Doug E Fresh (most recent), TLC lead lady T Boz, Fugee's legend Wyclef Jean, Co-founder of Rocafella Dame Dash, American Idol Fantasia and Super Producer Scott Storch all have in common for 2008? that one ever so sweet word...FORECLOSURE...say it with me now... anyways, all jokes aside, the affluent times of big money spenders have come and gone (for these guys/gals), be smart with your money period! (wyclef...smh...40 luxury cars...really? 40? i think that money will be gone for a bit longer then november bro). - the hot revolver

celebrity sighting on wall street! and my monitor. ...in tandem? (sigh) *ALSO new cc regulations?

Gimme a f*cking break Grimm! anyways...moving on...

***ON DEC. 18TH. Feds review and vote on new credit card regulations. This could be minor relief for the consumer w/ the following inplace:

" * Banks would be prohibited from increasing the rate on a pre-existing credit card balance (unless 30day defaults)

* Banks would be prohibited from using the universal default system (changing cc terms at their discretion if you default on a totally separate bill, PGE, comcast for example.)

* Banks would be required to give consumers the full benefit of discounted promotional rates on credit cards by applying payments in excess of the minimum to any higher-rate balances first, and by providing a grace period for purchases where the consumer is otherwise eligible.

* Banks would be prohibited from imposing interest charges using the "two-cycle" method, which computes interest on balances on days in billing cycles preceding the most recent billing cycle.

* Banks would be required to provide consumers a reasonable amount of time to make payments."

This could spawn direct negative impact for issuers like visa, master, discover, a.express not to mention the banks behind them. To keep it simple, the consumer saves on fees and erratic interest adjustments, but this means limiting the amount of credit available (hell yeah, if i can't charge late fees or raise interest, wtf would i lend you more money?), higher interest rates for new applicants, more stringent terms and more risks for the issuers, ultimately this alone will not stimulate consumer spending as "needed".

I do however agree that reform in the credit system is a must. BOA, Citi, Chase (jp morgan), all have their hands in this. Now if this takes a further toll on the behind-the-scenes assett-backed security investors, if unemployment continues to rise equating to higher probable debt defaults... I wouldn't be surprised if we witness another wave of financial institutes being on I.V bags in 2009...let's hope not. (i wish i acted on the dec. 35 RIMM puts week ago, and I am really looking into January 10 BAC puts, but I can't do shit with my capital strapped up in these decembers!)

- cheers the hot revolver

2 0 0 9 - the hot revolver says...

I'm numb. Someone pinch me please, better yet slap me, kick me in the bozack, just wake me the F up! My 2008 horizon is creeping to an end, it is a harsh and agonizing reality that I may close the year with my portfolio worth close to a single andy jackson ($20) (IF these damn dec. puts expire worthless on dec. 19th, six trading days and counting), the same portfolio which was once a six figure valued account. (feb. 2009). Here's a peek at the graph since June (my bday month)

*Keeping EMOTIONS out of your pockets* - I am expecting real estate deals to close for me first month of the new year. Usually I would not hesitate to allocate these funds back into my stock account, entirely. But I now let bills take precedent over my once 'goose that laid the golden egg'. I'm planning to spend 1/4 of my commissions paying debt and 3/4s into my stock account. I'm having revelations. My multiple theories and strategies of investing are reflected in my actual stock positions, options trading and even in simulation contests like the one on CNBC. Why is it that my CNBC portfolio (up %40 since Nov.) is kicking the shit out of my real-money accounts? click to expand pic.
I'm being rational, reflecting experience and data in deciding where to invest my money on both counts, so why are my thoughts torn in these different directions? I am confused within a confusing market, a dangerous combo where even a professional's judgment can become throwing darts at a board...plain and simple. I've decided to go back to basics, and I mentioned this to Nik a few nights ago, back to basics will be reflected via my trading decisions starting 2009. WWW.BULLYBANK.COM our official website should be up and running january 1st, THAT...I'm fcking excited about.

You guys can see a more conservative view on investing (the extreme declines I've faced really blurred my vision and judgment this past 6 months. I speculated more with stocks and options outside of my comfort zone equating to nothing but bad results and lessons learned.)

One word : TUITION , and you know what? I've paid enough of it. See you guys next week - cheers, the hot revolver.

Citizen Hope Miracle Day - FOOD DRIVE SAN FRANCISCO.

Sorry, don't mean to spam the blog but the hot revolver will be attending and volunteering a trading day to help distribute food to families at pier 48, San Fran. CITIZEN HOPE details here for those interested >> click below MIRACLEDAYfooddrive

Seriously, We're Paying Them to Make Cars...

Yay, more money down the drain!

(click the picture for full blown glory)

-Nik

eeer....something to laugh about yeah?

...count down...

With 7 trading days left for december options, the 1 week count down begins today before my positions expire worthless. My attitude toward these sesame street rallies? (refer to pic) calls: ATVI puts: ANF, UBS, VZ - cheers the hot revolver P.S The Official Website coming soon! 2009

One Last Hurrah for DRYS?

DRYS closed up 31% today, after closing up 51% yesterday. Notice the volume at 73 million shares, or roughly 2.5 times the float. Something really weird is going on here because the company hasn't released ANY news. Granted the entire dry bulk shipping sector rallied today it still doesn't explain the run that DRYS has been having.

I am holding on to a huge put position in DRYS and I'll outline how badly I'm getting raped on this trade:

Bought OOCXZ at $30
Current Value = $0

Bought OOCXA at $113
Current Value = $20

So, now that you feel my pain, let's discuss why I'm not tossing my monitor out of the window in a fit of rage. The most important point: NOTHING has changed. The company has come out with no news, no plan, not a word to justify this movement. This leads me to believe there is either hardcore manipulation going on (I'm not bitter, this stuff happens all the time) or value investors caused shorts to cover this stock up so much. Spot rates still remain near their lows and the BDI is not climbing with stock indexes.

The only thing that worries me is my timing, I might have pulled the trigger too soon on this company. My puts expire on December 19th, giving me 10 days to realize a profit and 10 days for DRYS to come out with bad news. Anything is possible.

My puts on Chesapeake Energy didn't move too much today as the stock didn't see any significant movement. Natural gas moved up slightly today but as you can see from the futures there is not huge upside movement predicted any time soon. I'm going to salvage what I can by holding on to my position and hopefully selling for a minimized loss.

Trading in this market really requires an iron stomach and an open mind. These past two days have been a huge test of my nerves. I've done my research and continue to look in to these two companies as much as I can. For me, it's not all about the money but more about being right and if I am wrong, I need to know why. In the case of DRYS I cannot find a reason. With CHK I doubted their options and liquidity position but still believe the stock can see some downside. Remember, if your not buying it, it makes sense to sell it.

Let's see what tomorrow has in store for us. Futures right now are pointing to a higher open but that can easily change over night.

Cheers.

-Nik

Look...Obama = great, ignoring the facts? = not so great.

*tick tick tick ... for wallstreet to ACT like brighter days are just around the corner, they might want to ask how f*cking long of a block we're strolling down in order get there! Look, I hate sounding bitter and so ghad damn beary, but there is nothing but a continued storm of horrible news yet the markets give this oscar worthy performance going into the new year. It will only take a few more BK filings or trails of tears to washington, and we will face the music head on. I hope I am wrong, but if I'm not .... refer to the pic below. I'm keeping a close eye on these retailers, and ears open to foreign policies. Don't forget, we are BULLYbank not BEARYbank so I would welcome a complete market turnaround, but I don't welcome falsehood and bullsh*t bear market rallies who only set traps for dumby bulls. My investments against verizon weren't the best moves of my investor career, but I am holding the dec. puts. I am still looking to buy more UBS puts at the right price, and RIMM, ANF are indeed on the radar. *cheers - the hot revolver.

Bear Market Rallies

A broadly accepted definition of a bear market is when the market sells of at least 20% from it's previous highs. The S&P 500 closed 38% from it's previous high set in October of 2007. We are definitely in a bear market and are going to experience bear market rallies.

A bear market rally is when the markets come back 10-20% in a clearly evident down trend. They come suddenly and can last for days on end. After the crash of 1929 there were many bear market rallies, however the general trend was downward and these rallies would fade after a couple days leading to the bottom in 1932. We have clearly been in a bear market rally the past couple of days.

Fundamentally nothing has changed. Investors are showing extreme confidence behind an infrastructure focused stimulus package that President Elect Barack Obama promises to sign. The funds will most likely be focused on clearing the back log of projects that states cannot fund. Prior government efforts to boost the economy by pumping funds in to infrastructure projects have proven to be riddled with problems. Many believe the inefficiencies inherent in government will create a lag time in which the economy will worsen and there is also great concern that projects will run over budget, as they typically do.

As the economy worsens the stock market will have to price in the changes, meaning that after this current bear market rally is over we're most likely heading down in a new leg of sell offs. December will prove to be another tough month for employment, consumer spending, and capital expenditures for companies. We're heading lower, in times like this patience is absolutely key.

DRYS closed up more than 50% today and my puts got obliterated. I'm now looking at paper losses in excess of 80%. I would normally be upset and angry but as I said above we're in a clear downtrend and I can't let a bear market rally make me second guess my research. DRYS rallied off no news specific to the stock, value investors bought this up and shorts were forced to cover, leading to a spectacular day. DRYS is trading like a stock headed for bankruptcy (think BSC, CFC, LEH, FNM, FRE, etc..) which means it's going to see huge swings in both directions. Nothing has changed with the company, so I will hold on to my position anticipating a huge sell off based off horrible fundamentals.

CHK rallied 2.76 points, or 24%, off news that the company would scrap it's 50 million share sale and sell assets worth $4 billion instead while cutting down on capital expenditures. While this is a smart move by the company natural gas continues to sell off. So, they're loosing cash generating assets and are getting paid less for their product. Although I believe the bankruptcy scare is over, it's up in the air when this company will return back to profitability. My puts in CHK got hammered today and I'm showing a substantial paper loss. I'm going to hold on to the puts and wait for the next downward leg in the markets. Although the idea of being profitable on these puts is out the window, at least we can make some of the money back. It will be very interesting to see if CHK can actually stay solvent without substantially diluting their shares - they claim they can but so did Bear Sterns.

Mama said there would be days like this and boy was she right. It's important to note the amount of volatility and risk that is part of this current market. It's also important to stick to strategy in times like this, nothing fundamentally changed today so I had no reason to change my positions. CHK still has hurdles it needs to clear and DRYS hasn't mentioned a thing on how they're going to come out of this alive. It is agonizing to watch your positions lose so much in one day but it's part of the extremely volatile job of trading options. I'm not going to loose any sleep tonight.

Let's see what tomorrow has in store.

-Nik (1/2 of the dynamic duo crazy enough to trade options in this market :).

A picture is worth 1000 pts? *ouch*

Me and my bear claws are getting torn a new one by the bullish markets ... I am considering dumping all my holdings of UBS, VZ, ATVI and putting everything into Abercrombie puts. keep you asshol*s updated while i stitch up mine... ouch. - cheers the hot revolver.

Market's set for an Erattic week.

Up or Down? i'm tired as hell and about to close shop for the night. Some pertinent earnings reports, op. results and conference calls set to release this week including, autozone, krogers, H&R block, ciena corp, costco, chesapeak, amazon, merk, AT&T, 3m, comast, covering a broad spectrum of industries that have all been in the spotlight as of late... seems like across seas the asian markets had one hell of a opening day, with major indicies seeing substantial gains. Optimism of the potential auto bailout? doesn't matter too much to them but perhaps the reiteration of stimuli packages (world wide).

I coin the term "hollow optimism" because quite frankly, my ass just doesn't see what the F there is to celebrate about right now, and even going into the first quarter of 2009. I've said it before, and I'll say it again...I'm going to look at these up days as opportunities to capitalize on a better short entry point or discounted puts ... because all and all, this thing is far from over. Unfortunately most of my eggs are incubating in those Verizon and UBS puts. Although I will be keeping an eye out on abercrombie, research in motion and bank of america...hell, Nik let's see what Chesapeak has to say tomar morning too - *on a side note, I hope escrow opens this week for the house I just sold or else...it could get annoying. cheers and g'night the hot revolver.

Oh Shit, It's the Remix!

Busta Rhymes " Arab Money (Remix) " Feat. Ron Browz, Diddy, Swizz Beatz, T-Pain, Akon & Lil Wayne

*whistles*

Hope you guys are enjoying your weekend!

Pick Your Poison

We had more dismal news reports out today. First off was the the unemployment rate and jobs report. The United States lost 533,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate is at 6.7%. Most economists were expecting unemployment to come in at 6.8%, so that didn't come as much of a surprise. The number of lay-offs definitely did.

Next up we have home loan delinquencies and foreclosures hitting record levels. It's now approximated that one in ten Americans is behind by at least one month on their mortgage. The Fed is working on a program to buy more home loans in the form of mortgage backed securities, in the hopes of dropping borrowing rates to 4.5%. The problem is not with rates, it's with banks unwillingness to lend money and Americans inability to meet stricter credit standards that include a large down payment. We need the housing market to stabilize naturally, unless the government actually buys houses on the market, they're not helping much. Until we see a bottom in the housing market, the economy will continue to tumble.

Auto makers were back on the Hill this week pleading for government assistance so they can continue to do horrible business. Congress is still torn over the terms of any kind of bailout and Chrysler has already hired bankruptcy lawyers. This really shows their optimism for the bailout and the business in general. Meanwhile, General Motors is laying off more people, a necessary step but one that does not help our economic condition.

With all this bad news, Wall St, in it's continued bouts of optimism rallied hoping the government would step up bail out efforts and flush more money in to the system. The Dow ended the day up 259 points at 8,635.42, the S&P 500 up 30 points to end at 876.07, and the winner for the day the Nasdaq was up 63 points (4.41%) to close at 1,509. The government will be forced to do more but what remains to be seen is whether or not it will help things. We should give pull back next week, although any spin on bad news, or actual good news will send up sky-rocketing higher.

I bought more puts on Chesapeake Energy today at a 10 dollar strike price. Natural gas continued to sell off but CHK didn't drop as much because of the broader market rally. My puts on DRYS got hammered today, continuing the trend in this stock of no news is good news. I'm not worried and I'm going to stick to what I believe: the company has limited options and a huge sell off is coming. Just have to wait patiently.

This was a great week for me and my partner, The Revolver closed a HOT real estate deal this week. So, we both getting ARAB MONEY...haha.

Hope you guys have a brilliant weekend. It's time for Bully Bank to get it's celebration on!

Werd :)

-Nik

*Another Iphone "Killer" (R.I.P bb storm imo haha)

*looks promising...


***CONGRATS NIK on yet another amazing play! "ARAB MONEY!!".

Paying for Next Semesters College Tution in One Trade

I sold my Chesapeake Energy puts in the last hour of trading, nice sell off there created the perfect opportunity.

Bought CHKXV at $70
Sold CHKXV at $210
Total Gain on Trade: 210%

The Department of Energy released a report on natural gas inventories today that caused a sell off in natural gas. That sell off in natural gas triggered a sell off in Chesapeake, which was beautiful for me. This one trade will pay next semesters tuition + books + other fun stuff.

On to DRYS: This stock is in it's own universe. There's a lot of conflicting media regarding the company. A lot of investor websites are calling it undervalued and a great buy - they're ignoring the massive debt load the company has and the fact that their assets have depriciated by 60 - 70%. My Dec 5 puts are still profitable for me, however my Dec. 2.5 puts are showing a 50% loss. No biggie, this company doesn't have many options, so I'm going to hold until bad news comes out (should be soon).

High five to a brilliant day!

-Nik

Pause *take a glance into real estate.

**quick side note** Congratz to Lil Wayne for 8 grammy nods incl. album of the year! and after previewing half a dozen tracks, Jamie Foxx's new album will be FIRE! ok back to bully business:
*UPDATE* One of my client's offers was officially accepted today (applause on their behalf) so I am looking forward to escrow closing and my chunk of the commission in January (short sale deals are a pain!!). Anyways, just a tid bit for you real estate savvy or r.e interested folks ( link at the end of this post). As a broker, I'm seeing unusual amounts of overbids and activity as of late in all REO / short sale inventory. Buyer's are scrambling to own homes in neighborhoods that are exactly that, "hoods", but who can blame them? $100,000 mortgage with the right program could equate to a fixed 30 year rate at about $700 a month, that's including PITI (principle, interest, taxes, insurance), note: houses 3bedroom+ easily rent for $1000+, and with some tlc work could qualify for government housing voucher progs (section 8) for steady income. These are below late 80's prices when my family first bought a 2 bedroom home in San Pablo, CA for around $160,000! crazy. The housing woes still have room to go, but there isn't much more room to slide when you're prices are competing against your retail automobile sales lot (I for one would rather spend my money on a shingled roof as opposed to a convertible roof ya dig? )- the hot revolver. TO READ MORE CLICK BELOW >
Houses under $100K (Bay Area)

again.....cute bounce ...real f*cking cute.

yes I am aware I used this same image less then 48hrs ago...- cheers the hot revolver (VZ up to $33 does not help my dec. puts at all...haha)

Nice Try

We saw a pretty good bounce back today after yesterday's plunge. The rally was lead by financial companies - Bank of American and Citi were up 12% today but the rally didn't phase my plays.

I started this week holding on to OOCXA and bought a healthy amount of CHKXV this morning - about 20 minutes after open.

I've explained before my reasoning behind DRYS so I'll discuss my reasoning behind Chesapeake Energy. There are two major reasons for me going short:

1) Their operating cash flow is not enough to service their capital expenditures and heavy debt load. They have already begun selling assets and diluting their stock. They've registered 50 million new shares to sell, hoping to raise a total of $791.0 million - roughly $15.82 per share. The market does not expect the company to get this price and thinks CHK will have to take more drastic action - it's priced in to the stock.

1) The price of natural gas has fallen off a lot this year and inventories are rising, signaling that prices will stay low. CHK needs cash from their natural gas business and with prices this low, they won't get it.

CHK also uses derivatives to hedge against price fluctuations, they appear to be loosing big on those right now. If the company does not get a serious cash infusion they'll be close to bankruptcy.

I'm going to hold on to both of my positions for at least a couple days. If anything I'll let the DRYS puts go before the CHK puts.

-Nik

P.S. - HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAAHAH at GM. Wagoner's ready to DRIVE to Washington D.C.? This is the same company that asked the FAA to block tracking of their company jet. Sigh...

cute bounce this morning...

time to buy puts and short.
- cheers the hot revolver.

Well well well ...

**updated**I guess people came to their senses, and the markets are down big! both my partner and I were well positioned for a market downturn (me: UBS nik: DRYS). I cashed in on 1/3 of my contracts earlier this morning at a 33% gain entry $45 / contract exit $60. I'm holding more then half because I am thinking there is more room to go on UBS, it just traded under $11 for the day.

Remember the UBS play was a chunk of my portfolio I needed this! haha, I am keeping an eye on VZ dec. 27.50 and 25 puts as well as YHOO 12 / 13 calls for a side play later this week perhaps, the reason? VZ I'm a former customer who jumped ship and I have a buy to open limit order for 20 dec. puts today. Yanghoo? Carl Ichan's recent increase of his stake in the company and also the erratic reports on the on-going bullsh*t between microsoft and yahoo, rumor has it that there was another deal arising while both co.s denied it immediately...hmmm..could be suspect. But I wouldn't be interested until the stock was closer or lower then $10. Be back later guys. cheers - the hot revolver.

Welcome December: Animal Activist Can't Prevent this Show Down.

Hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving weekend, but we are back to business come Monday 6:30am pst.

Alright, the markets ended the week with an impressive 5 day gain. If you ask me, the holiday spirits conjured up an early Christmas this year. Early reports are also suggesting that the busiest shopping day of the year (black friday) saw an increase of roughly 3% compared to last year, surprising the many who anticipated a slower holiday shopper turnout. *I for one was in San Francisco's Union Sq. and it was a freakin ZOO out there! (this goes back to my point on a previous entry, the cut back on spending as of late would lead to increase of spending during holiday season sales). Let's see how this pans out for the rest of the season though.

Citigroup’s decision to hold their own auction block, starting with NikkoCiti Trust and Banking Corp, and the anticipation of the automaker bailout should all lead to a continued rise in the markets this week. Not so great news for my December UBS puts. But I am still confident in the fact that the markets are not set for a complete turnaround. If the markets do continue to rise Monday onto Tuesday, we should see profit taking and increase in short interest toward the end of the week. ***update...I guess theres been some more negative tid bits from across seas leading to perhaps a lower open tomar...im at hooters getting my pervert on so ill read into the details later.

Personally, I am running out of bullets here so my dec. 10 UBS puts play is important to me. I currently have an active real estate deal which I hope to bank a couple thow-wow off commission. Fack a vacay! I’m taking the money and replenishing capital into my stock account if and when that takes place (fingers crossed). Being a versatile investor is important especially during these mood swing type markets. There maybe signs of nubs reappearing on my head, but I remain with a steady appetite for fish and campers.
- cheers The Hot Revolver.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Happy Thanksgiving guys! I can't wait for all the food, and wine ;)! For now let's go over Wednesday's trades:

I sold all my long positions, outlined below:

Bought OOCLA at $130
Sold OOCLA at $140
Total Gain on Trade: 7.6%

This was my dreaded DRYS calls, I was happy to let them go at a profit. I don't think the company can last much longer as rates keep on dropping and their debt obligations keep on piling up.

Bought CLQ at $44
Sold CLQ at $80
Total Gain on Trade: 81%

Sold my calls options on Citi because I think markets will continue to go down in the near term. We had a nice 4 days up and I was happy to take advantage of that with these calls.

And positioned myself for the next few weeks:

Bought OOCXA at $120

I bought puts on DRYS because I don't have any faith in the company. Also, if I'm not buying a stock, it makes sense to sell it.

It was a good week, I reversed from going short last week to going long at the right time and was able to capitalize on the four day rally we had. I'm happy that I anticipated this trend and was positioned to take advantage of it.

On this day of thanks, I'd like to give my thanks to all of you that are reading this. Hope you all have a brilliant day!

-Nik

On a personal note: My heart goes out to all those affected by the terrorist attacks in Bombay. I was born in Bombay and have spent a lot of time there - it's my favorite city on this planet. I also have a lot of family and incredibly close friends there. For these reasons it's disheartening to see a bunch of cowards turn the city upside down. Bombay is a resilient city and will bounce back from this, the financial effects are yet to be seen as the Bombay Stock Exchange was closed today.

My beautiful city, I hope you get back on your feet soon.

Positioning for next week (post gobble gobble weekend!)

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I'm going to keep this short and sweet. I've moved into two dozen Dec. 10 UBS puts today. We'll see how the market acts next week, will it continue the upward trend? or reel back and move in correlation with the actual economic status of the world! haha stay tuned! - jotti the hot revolver.

***Ration your appetite tomorrow, we don't want any more of these floatin' around next monday***

Hey Unc! I need snaps on the petro you got fade on it???

My only question on this lovely tuesday morning is, who's ass is our government pulling all this money out from?? to "save" the world?? pathetic but hey if it keeps the rallys up, I'm all for it. (I'm holding my dec. BAC puts so you know i'm on the otherside of the table). ***Oh yeah, me and my partner (Nik) will be doing a thorough analysis on the future of a certain sector *cough commercial r.e/REITs* later this week so stay tuned... later guys (hits the snooze) - jotti the hot revolver

W T F Mate?

I'm sitting around last night relaxing after a hard night's partying and I decided to turn on CNBC. I wasn't expecting much, maybe a special about Taco Bell, or another story on GM, what I got was live coverage from New York on Citigroup. The coverage was centered around a government bailout of the firm, even as Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit told investors on FRIDAY the firm has enough capital to survive on it's own.

Last time I checked well capitalized firms didn't require government assistance.

Markets rallied off the news with the S&P 500 posting gains of 6.47%, or 52 points. The Citigroup bail out is a sign that the end of this financial crisis is still far away. Big financial firms can still fail and the government will have to spend a lot more money bailing them out. As the economy dips deeper in to recession, we're almost certain to see the markets pull back again.

I bought calls on Citigroup on Friday (CLQ) because I was expecting to get good news over the weekend. The calls appreciated well today but still have a bit to go. I'll let you guys know when I sell them.

My other trade today was buying calls on DRYS (OOCLA). I think this was a mistake because I don't think DRYS is going to continue to rally. My original plan was to buy them mid-day and sell them at the end of the day. As the rally got more intense, DRYS lost momentum, which was not a good sign. I decided to hold on to them in case the market continues it's uptrend or DRYS comes out with some good news - I won't be holding my breath.

The DRYS trade is a good example of how careful traders have to be in this environment. I acted on impulse, not sound decision making, and might pay the price for it. If I do, I will definitely chalk it up to a good lesson learned and will work on not making the same mistake again.

See you guys tomorrow!

-Nik

Note To Readers!

We actively welcome feedback, interaction and such with everyone who actually gives a sh*t about making some damn money during these forsaken times! This is just a preview of the actual website (1st quarter '09). We encourage questions, critique, blessings, voluntary ssn submissions (jk) all alike! got something to say or ask? it's easy just subscribe by becoming a reader (free!). - jotti aka hot revolver

Monday Morning Rally.

To no surprise, there was tremendous reception to the citigroup "bailout" today (so far). The dow popped 300+ pts this morning as the news overshadowed weary existing home sales numbers (not pretty). Will we be able to hold onto the gains? well Pres. elect OBAMA will be speaking live at around 9am pst to reveal his economic staff which could help sustain the upside or may trigger a sell off (let's hope he doesn't spend 15 minutes talking about the future first dog).

I can't put my complete confidence behind a good or bad holiday retail season just yet. Generally we are expecting a slow down in holiday spending for obvious reasons, but there is a very real possibility that the recent slowdown in consumer spending is due to people saving up only to flush the money into holiday sales (starting black friday). This could in fact end up surprising all the doom and gloom forecasts (short term only). Retail will still slide further 1st qtr 2009.

I however am still confident that credit usage will continue to decline, and with cash expected to be heavily used during holiday seasons this could directly effect banks in a negative manner. I think delinquency in consumer debt will continue to grow deeper (it's hard to say no to the kids!). I am still negative in real estate going into 2009, especially commercial real estate (which has only felt nicks and dings).

I sold my ATVI dec. 12.50s for a 25% gain, and have moved the $ into Bank of America dec. 10 puts. I'm a BULL at heart but the BEARs are leaving bigger prints still. I am also keeping an eye on some other plays for today (still long on TSL, may prove to be the most valuable small cap solar out of the bunch) - jotti the hot revolver

Some places...are still baaaaallin!!!

DUBAI's new 1.5B Hotel grand opening event.

A Brilliant Two Weeks - Consecutive 100%+ Gains

These past two weeks (November 10 - now) have been the most intense two trading weeks I've had in my life. Trading every single session this week has felt like working a 12+ hour day. The volatility in this market is nuts and your stomach has to be iron lined to be be trading in it. The VIX closed at 80.86 today, which is an ALL TIME high. That means fear is at unprecedented levels and this volatility should continue until we get good news - don't hold your breath.

My trades for this week:

Bought OOCWA at $60 yesterday.
Sold OOCWA today at $140.
Total Gain on Trade: 133%

Bought AXPWQ at $55.
Sold AXPWQ today at $90.
Total Gain on Trade: 63%

Bought ZWRWC at $45.
Sold ZWRWC at $95.
Total Gain on Trade: 111%

I closed all my positions today as options expiration is tomorrow and I had made enough profit. If I was really ballsy I would have held to see what tomorrow had in store but here's an important lesson: Take profits in a market like this! They might not exist tomorrow!

My account is up 525% in two weeks. Needless to say, I'm ecstatic and glad I stuck to my strategy even when my positions were down! I was planning on taking tomorrow off but I can't stay away from the markets, especially now. If I see a good opportunity I'll grab it tomorrow, if I don't I have no problem staying idle.

We created Bully Bank to showcase gains like this! We're two normal guys - granted we work our ass off in coming up with ideas and researching those ideas but besides that we're just like you. I'm really happy we can showcase such gains in such a short period of time. Lots more to come ;)!

Red light! pump the brakes! *out of pocket? listen up...

*I wish my account hadn't fallen below the 25k day trader quota! these are perfect times!) I (Jotti) am eating soup with a fork here! haha. I guess in a sense I haven't practiced what I preached on eliminating hollow optimism and factoring in risk assessment. Okay if it ain't broke don't fix it right? Well in my case it's become broke and I'm emptying the tool shed in a hurry. I've been playing russian roulette with more then one bullet in the cylinder and it has cost me big time! Reflecting back on my most recent posts (plays), I am the bully who played the solar call options (i couldn't barter the contracts for air right now), bought CC a few days before the bk filing (luckily I sold at no loss), ATVI a few days before the downgrade!(which I am still long on), and covered both my YHOO and CBG short positions way too early! (minuscule profit compared to loss). The global economy sucks, there's no miraculous one weekend fix here! But I just hate the feeling that this market could rebound 1000 pts at any given time if bargain hunters and a chain of positive news happen to surface in tandem. Emotions are hard to contain, when we lose X amount of money, we tend to double down X in hopes to recuperate on the next play am I right? (hence my solar and CC plays, both could have doubled in value or dropped in the same degree).

I've discovered as of late that I have fallen into the depth of taking profits too early and cutting loses too late, allocating less $ in lower risk plays and dumping generously in high risk ones, worst predicament one could get caught in! Blah...anyways, these things happen but luckily I have an iron stomach since I've been trading for nearly a decade now and have experienced several up and down cycles. But I promised myself to render and warp this cycle. I (should) have the knowledge and experience to do so. The point of my entry today is to help wake up some of the people who have lost tremendously the past 6 to 8 months...better late then never as they say. ***IN PLAY*** conservative long position, I bought Dec. 12.50 calls of ATVI activision/blizzard and I stand by this investment 100% (I also hold dec. 15s) ( I see no lackluster holiday sales and the company's books seem solid enough, and to my knowledge there are no reckless spending on product releases, for both home console and pc base, the downside? P/E is pretty high up there haha, but I see profit margins rising and customer base. I'm one for sure who will be seeking entertainment at home as opposed to going out these days =( haha - Cheers! Jotti.

.

forget sharing a convenience bag...

watching the markets play by play? we are too and it ain't that fun.

Anoher Wild Day

Markets were extremely volatile today but ended higher. I was holding on to AXP NOV 17.5 Strike Puts, DRYS NOV 7.5 Strike Puts, and bought a solid amount of ANF NOV 15 Strike Puts. All my positions were up and down a lot today. My AXP puts closed in the black, my DRYS puts closed in the black, and my ANF puts closed at break even.

There was a plethora of information released today. Starting with the resignation of Jerry Yang as CEO of Yahoo!. Investors have been waiting for this day for months and the stock rallied ending the day up 8%. This leaves the door wide open for another offer from rival Microsoft and will put YHOO Dec. calls in play. I'll let you guys know if I decide to make a move.

Hewlett-Packard soared today, closing up 14%, after the company reportedit's earnings would be better than expected and forecast solid guidance for the fourth quarter. While other tech bellwethers have slashed forecasts and have seen their earnings decline, HPQ bucked the trend, reviving investor sentiment in the company.

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernake testified in front of Senators this morning justifying their reasoning behind the change in TARP. Paulson said no funds would be used to buy bad mortgage assets, rather the money would go to stimulating consumer demand by buying securitizedcredit card loans, student loans, and auto loans. Hankson also said that no TARP money should be used to bail out auto makers. We learned absolutely nothing new here.

At 3PM eastern time, CEOs from the Big Three automakers and the head of the United Auto Workers (UAW) union testified in front of a Senate committee in hopes of receiving a bailout. The automakers had to convince the Senators that systemic risk was an issue that would cripple the U.S. economy if any of them filed for bankruptcy. They failed at doing this and managed to show that any fall out from a major automaker going bankrupt would only affect the auto industry. I would not expect our government to write them a blank check based of today's testimony.

Today was a tough day, one that tested the amount of faith I have in my ideas. I've learned that good ideas, that are well researched, make great strategies and you always stick to your strategy unless there is a material change that affects your positions. I stuck to my strategy today and believe that it will pay off. It's options expiration week, which means that all of my puts will expire on Friday and unless they're in the money, they'll expire worthless. My plan is to sell all of my positions on Thursday - at the latest. I will sell at a gain or loss but I have to get rid of these before Friday or the trade will be worthless.

Tomorrow is looking to be another crazy day, so keep that seat belt fasten and hopefully we'll see some solid gains tomorrow.

Facing a loss, and moving on.

Okay, okay. The harsh reality behind investing is when you realize you've made a mistake that has lead to a loss. My options are set to expire this friday and are worth NOTHING right now. Let me perhaps break this down in retrospect.

1. SOL saw a sell off of 50% in just 2 days last week as the sector got hammered. CSIQ down 35% in the same 2 days (no news, but negative sentiment)
At this point the Nov. Call Options were between .25 to a .10 cent a piece. (easy opportunity to double your money if the stocks rebounded enough)

2. I knew a market rebound would generally lead to a solar sector bounce, and these stocks move in high percentages (15%+ or - a day is easy)

3. We were headed toward the G20 meeting last week, (anticipating some positive market reaction)

4. Along with anticipating the markets to pop up before the G20, I figured earnings were scheduled and the CSIQ/SOL were both oversold. I bought the Nov. $10s and Nov. $7.50s respectively.

5. When we saw the market pop up 500+ last week on thursday, CSIQ bounced up 18% and SOL up 30%. At one point my options were up %50+ each, I expected the trend to continue up onto friday so I held (mistake). What happened friday? we closed down 300 pts. This was crucial...I needed CSIQ/SOL to be positioned at $7 and $5 respectively, they closed friday at $6.31 and $4.35. (2 day weekend automatically devalues the options as starting monday nov. 17th, the options had 5 days to live. EXTRENSIC VALUE)

So as of today (Tuesday Nov. 18th) all my options are worth NOTHING, I'd be lucky to get a nickel bid per contract at this point.

Another lesson learned, I told my partner this morning I am reverting back to basics for awhile...this was a risky investment on my part but again the GREED factor is what murdered me this week. Cheers, and remember learn to differentiate WALL ST. from the VEGAS STRIP, or you might have a rude awakening haha. - JOTTI

(self explanatory)

Kashkari Slammed by Congress

Neel Kashkari, the Interim Assistant Secretary of the Treasury and the man responsible for deciding who gets money from the $700 billion bailout, gets slammed at a Congressional hearing on Friday November 13th. The Congressmen feel that Kashkari, along with the rest of the U.S. Treasury, baited them in to approving the bailout bill by claiming it was a rescue of home owners. Last week the Treasury announced that they would no longer be buying bad mortgage assets, instead they would buy bad consumer loans (credit cards, student loans, etc.), which does not help homeowners.

G20, Second Tier Commercial Paper, GM, and the Week Ahead

I want to start out by thanking my partner for creating the beautiful new header that graces this blog. Look up, it looks great!! I'll admit I'm not much of a visually creative whiz which is why I'm really thankful for the creation!

Alright on to business:

A lot of traders were a bit skeptical about being short going in to this weekend because of the G20 meeting. The G20 is a group of the 20 biggest economies in the world that represent approximately 90% of world GDP. Fears were from traders who worried the G20 would create a $200 billion fund to buy bad debt/assets from nations around the world - a global bailout.

The Wall St. Journal is reporting the G20 nations have agreed on:

* Reached a common understanding of the root causes of the global crisis;
* Reviewed actions countries have taken and will take to address the immediate crisis and strengthen growth;
* Agreed on common principles for reforming our financial markets;
* Launched an action plan to implement those principles and asked ministers to develop further specific recommendations that will be reviewed by leaders at a subsequent summit; and
* Reaffirmed their commitment to free market principles.

They are expected to come out with a comprehensive plan of action by March of 2009. I really hope the food was good this weekend because that might have been the only highlight. This doesn't help markets at all in the near term and might have a negative affect on Monday morning.

Bloomberg is reporting Honda Motor and Home Depot are lobbying the Federal Reserve to include second tier commercial paper in their commercial paper buy back program. Commercial paper is a short term loan that companies use to cover daily operating expenses (payroll, rent, etc.), so it's their life line. By buying only first tier commercial paper the Fed is raising the borrowing cost of second tier paper. First tier commercial paper rates have dropped to 1.16% from an October high of 4.28%, second tier commercial paper rates have dropped to 5.18% from an October high of 6.30%, the cost of borrowing for companies reliant upon second tier paper is extremely high.

Interest rates represent market sentiment and of course default risk. We cannot turn in to a nation that bails out every one while putting our tax payers at risk. Even with short term funding some of these companies might fail and that would affect the taxpayer. If the Fed agrees to buy second tier commercial paper, it will be time to look in to Gold trades (something I'm generally against!) as Gold prices will rise with inflation.

On to a the fate of General Motors. On Monday Democrats will bring to Senate a bill that will allow GM access to the TARP program (the $700 billion bailout). Republicans are going to use a special power which will delay the vote until Wednesday. President Bush and other Republicans strongly oppose bailing out the giant auto maker. If the bill fails to pass, GM's days are numbered and it will go down as one of the biggest embarrassments in American history. It will also cause the nation to loose a staggering amount of jobs and will discontinue benefits for some retirees. The markets will sell off if the GM bailout doesn't pass.

If it does pass, we will reach a scary place. The bailout of GM should come with clauses that mandate a change in management. Even with new management GM will not sell cars until the consumer is doing better and their image is brought back from the dead - the former will happen way before the latter. This will put the Fed in a situation where they will have to give the auto maker more and more money, way past what we're looking at this week, similar to AIG (which originally wanted $85 billion but has take more than $160 billion from the Fed). We will rally off a bailout of GM but it won't last. This is a lose lose situation.

I'm going into Monday with 50% of my cash in NOV 17.5 AXP puts and NOV 7.5 DRYS puts. I feel comfortable with the positions but I'll be watching what the government does very closely this upcoming week.

Buckle up, it's going to be one hell of a ride starting tomorrow.

Making Every Move Count.

As we are about to start another week off I wanted to take a quick minute and explain my current holdings of Nov. Call option contracts that are set to expire this coming Friday (expired contracts are worth nothing). The only way I see these babies making me a profit is with consecutive market/sector rallies throughout the week. So it's a fight against time and overall market sentiment (little hope haha) as each day goes by. Last Friday's closing prices were HUGE factors and I was a bit disappointed, I was looking for $7+ and $5+ for CSIQ/SOL respectively, just so they could be a in a better position going into the week. The contracts could be worth a nickel a piece throughout the week until they expire. I'll of course be looking for opportunities to make up for the loss on these babies, Cheers to another trading week, tomorrows another day. - jotti

what an EMO type of market today.

This blog is a sneak peak of our official website which is scheduled to launch in early 09. If you are a new reader please take a moment and read our earlier entries in the archive section (to your right) to get a feel for things. Me and my partner are both real people, investing our real money, sharing our ideas and decisions in real time. Today's market was yet another rollercoaster ride. I hope I fair better next week with my current holdings. Although I was able to cash in some of my gains yesterday, the options I still held onto CSIQ, SOL and ATVI all experienced dramatic declines today. I decided to cover half of my short position in CBG because of uncertainty in today's movement. In a sporadic market like this, we have to be versatile and not stubborn in our decisions. *The solar calls expire next week* I expect high volatility again, enjoy your weekend guys!

Notes on This Morning

Market opened down about 10 points, we're down 27 on the S&P right now. I took full advantage of yesterdays rally by buying AXP NOV 17.5 Puts and this morning I bought DRYS NOV 7.5 Puts. The news out this morning was gloomy but not overly surprising. Nokia says handsets sales are going to plummet - people aren't buying cell phones? - no shit.

Citi is going to fire more people, what they need to do is fire Vikram (I hate to say that but it's true) and shrink the company even further. And poor poor retail sales, this stuff is pretty self-explanatory.

Hank Paulson goes live in 3 hours and 18 minutes (thanks CNBC!) and if he continues letting us all down, I'll update later with an awesome blasting of Hanky.

Alright guys, last trading day of the week. Lets do this!

2010 Bentley Azure (drop)

current mood: aroused 500HP V8 175mph only $350,000(click)

MOMENTUM PLAYS

CSIQ nov. calls were as low as a a dime per contract this morning. I got in a good amount at this level. I also was fortunate to grab some SOL nov. calls at a nickel yesterday! My ATVI dec. 15 calls were as low as .20 and I grabbed a bunch there and as the market swung back up today those calls last quoted at .40 per contract! Only wish I put more then $$$ in to double haha. Okay on another note. CB Richard Ellis, company announced they will be issuing 50million shares at $3.77/shr to raise and estimatd $180+ million for corporate budget increase in 09. The shares outstanding/float is roughly 200million as of today, with the newly issued shares that will bring it up to 250million shares trade, it's up over 30% today on the news but with my experience in commercial real estate (I am a real estate broker, a very poor one) the leasing and resale market is obviously headed toward the shits atleast for the next few quarters. This directly will effect commercial real estate firms outlook in the new year! anyways the short float of this comp is currently around 9%, I expect this to increase dramatically into December as CBG's business is global and foreign real estate is just tip toeing into the shadows of what the USA real estate market has experienced this year. SHORT ON CBG at $5.35. On a side note, QUANTUM OF SOLACE MIDNIGHT SHOWING TONIGHT VAN NESS THEATRE!

Brilliant Day - MS, DRYS, YHOO, introducing AXP

Hey readers, this is my first post on this site. I'm so excited to have this blog up and have a chance to have out voices heard. This blog is for the everyday guy, just like my partner and I.

Down to business:

Markets opened considerably down this morning to my surprise. The DOW by 7am was down more than 200 points and at that time it became apparent that unless some huge news came today, the markets would sell off. Here we are 28 minutes after the closing bell with the DOW down 411 points to 8,282, the S&P down 46 points to 852, and the Nizzy down 81 points to 1,499.

Going in to today I was holding on to November 15 puts on Morgan Stanley (MS), November 10 puts on DryShips Inc. (DRYS), and November 10 puts on YHOO. I had approximately 90% of my cash in the MS and DRYS puts, so I was anticipating a huge movement when I bought them. MS has immense pressure on them to buy a retail bank since they've converted their status to a bank holding company from an investment bank. The play was simply that they did not have enough cash to make something like this happen while covering their continuing losses.

The trade on DRYS was less speculative than MS but still based on solid logic. DRYS had at the end of September approximately $2.9 billion in total debt with $533 million of that being short term. The company only had $335 in cash on their balance sheet, they had no way of paying back this debt unless they did one or both of two things:

1) Raise capital through sale of equity
2) Sell assets (their ships - their bread and butter)

DRYS came out with a shelf registration for 25 million shares, with another 19 million promised to a company owned in majority by the CEO of DRYS (see something fishy here?). The sale of equity plus the shares promised would dilute DRYS common stock outstanding by approximately 106%. Who knows what price they will get also as the market has shown they are not to confident in the company. DRYS will have to start selling ships soon to pay their creditors. Add to that their 43% of their business is still in the spot market, where rates are below the break even point for the company, and you have a complete turkey.

I sold my MS puts at 12:30PM today for a gain of 127% and sold my DRYS puts this morning for a gain of 281%. Since I had the majority of my cash in these two positions my account value gained by 116% - that is I doubled my account in little more than a week of buying these positions. I choose to sell because the gains were so high but I might re-enter any of these positions if the market continues to react negatively to the stocks.

On to American Express (AXP) who asked the government today for $3.5 billion dollars. The difference between AXP and Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) is that AXP actually loans their clients money whereas V and MA only process transactions (a much safer business). This indicators major problems because AXP customers are generally considered high quality than MA or V. If the upper middle class start to default on credit card bills, it could be the beginning of the second round of this financial crisis. If that happens the government (already stretched thin) will have to step in and put more money in to failing companies. I'll be watching and doing my homework on AXP all this week. It's looking right now as if it's the next big position.

Hope you all had a great day. See you guys tomorrow at market open.

It could always be worse.

Look My New Car - Watch more free videos

Is there any soul left in solars???

**UPDATE 12:30PM** I am dancing and playing with fire, just bought 10 NOV. 5 calls and 15 NOV. 10 calls for SOL / CSIQ respectively. I'm using part of the profit made from the YHOO trade earlier this week. The prices on companies like JASO, SOL, CSIQ... them hedgies DUMPED big today.

MORNING WOOD (or wouldn'ts)

In Summary, Macy's and Best Buy's reports both reiterated an expected gloomy slowdown in the holiday season to come, in Best Buy's case, cutting forecast dramatically into the new year has helped send the Dow down another 200 pts this morning. Macy's has decent management, and along with posting better then expected results (still a loss) they are immediately taking action to lower overall inventory and increase margins, like I said yesterday I like Macy's and think they and their high end Bloomingdales stores should survive the Holiday season without a problem. But I am not looking into buying the stock at this point. I have this morning been looking to increase my position in DEC. 15 ATVI calls and although jasolar reported horribly, I am looking for an opportunity to get in NOV.10 CSIQ calls for cheap and SOL calls for pennies on the dollar! crazy market but I'm looking to cap on the spikes/pops. (Oh yeah look at CCYTQ's gain today haha)

Turbulence ... Sh*t !

Enter El Matador , R.I.P The Bull (temporarily)

I closed my YHOO DEC. PUTS today at avg .85 (i got in avg .45), not a bad gain of 75% for less then a weeks time, maybe now I can pay my cable bill on time this month. But I am keeping my NOV.s open. The stock should tread even closer to $10 but I have my eyes on some other stuff and need capital on hand. My partner in crime may be kind enough to explain in a later post how he's benefited by taking a short / put position in several companies recently. Not to sound like a pooper but there's a bunch of hollow, rootless optimism going on these days. The BEAR is in play, and the BULLs are getting slaughtered ... hopefully that changes soon.
*Update on Circuit City, apparently they are hoping to "get out" of bankruptcy by 2nd quarter 09...I guess I'll hold these sh*t shares for a little while (CCTYQ I HAVE MY EYES ON: Activision DEC. 15 calls. Wells Fargo, China Mobile, and I have a limit order for NOV. 10 CSIQ calls. I would move on WFC under $28 and CHL i would go long on closer to $40/share. SOLARS are still my favorite 211 plays, (in and out swiftly)we'll see as the day goes by, dow currently down a little over 200pts. (sigh)

THE BEAR CLAW IS OFFICIAL!

Today's little pop at market open of 200+pts has been completely sold off guiding the dow into the red...this is disgusting. Fannie Mae's report today was just another sign of what the economy faces in the next few quarters...oh crap. DHL shipping is cutting 10,000 jobs? the demi-god run Google has been downgraded and reached a new 52wk low??!! all of this ontop of the previously discussed GM, Circuit city news...wow, we're in for one ugly start to 2009. Earnings and Automakers are what we're waiting to hear about. I am gettin my grizzly on, take the "bull" out of BULLY for now.

*More YHOO puts. (I just don't like Jerry Yang)

I bought some more contracts but this time november 11 puts (11 days til expiration). The markets seem to be selling off from the 200+ this morning, MSFT needs to let this company stock (YHOO) bleed to near $10 before they consider making a bid for this, especially with earnings around the corner. We'll see just what MSFT has up their sleeves soon enough. Until we hear different, I am putting my money against YHOO.

EARNINGS THIS WEEK.

Starbucks, Macy's, JCpenny, Nordstroms, Liz Claiborne, Walmart, Applied Materials, huge companies who all have great relevance to today's economy. In previous, and BETTER market conditions I would have invested in some of these names prior to earnings to ride the momentums. In today's market condition, I have to wait for the earnings to be released and invest accordingly. Macy's, Walmart all will easily influence the market's over all direction from this week until the end of the month. I am interestedin buying Macy's at a lower price ( < $10) and I am not too big on Nordstroms, or Crocs (who reports this week as well).

OUCH! ...GM, F, Circuit City Short Circuits! (pun intended)

I guess the pressure was too much to bare over the weekend as CC has filed for bankrupty this morning! the good news for me? I only owned a puny 1000 shares making my loss $250. I had put a limit order to buy 2000 but only 1000 shares went through (applause). It was a gamble that I lost, the company did too little too late. moving on. GM, as every day passes with no word from our govt. in stepping in to assist the shriveling automaker sector...GM is down 30% this morning, making it a $3 stock with almost no confidence from analyst abroad. I would stay away from this stock because of the uncertainty and the dependency on the GOVERNMENT, who is unpredictable. Remember, the U.S needs to avoid having to print dollars just to save some of these sectors. Of course if GM folds, we are talking easily half a million jobs in the long run (if not more) but again, even if the govt. decides to step in to assist, this doesn't mean it will help the stock stabilize. (think AIG, WB) Not worth the risk at the moment.

Big Trouble in little China? WONG! excuse me, I mean WRONG!

Okay so today's headlines read $586 Billion Chinese bailout. China has decided to implement their own emergency financial savior package of sort to help save the butts of some of it's own distressed markets/sectors. Although full details on when and how the money will be dispersed have yet to be disclosed, I am going to interpret this as some brownie points for China's own "Blue Chip" companies...China Mobile (CHL) for example is definitely on my interest list, as maybe BIDU (the chinese Google), I'll let you know if I decide to act on anything interesting. Hopefully they don't open at a premium tomorrow morning...this could be a short term pump and dump scenario as the global credit crisis is far from resolved.

Week 1.

Sh*t! Tomorrow I'm hoping my margin account get's re-instated entirely. Margin if you don't know provides additional leverage, the capability to borrow 100% of your current funds to make additional investments with. I am currently long on Activision and circuit city. CC? yeah I know it sounds crazy, all the signs are there for this company to close their doors after this holiday season, but being the #2 electronics retailer with a current market cap. of $47million! (#1 Best Buy is at $12billion), a quarter a share is just too hard to resist. I will admit, my position in CC is a gamble. I am also still holding just December 10 YHOO puts. Microsoft has clearly made note that they are not enthusiastic at this time about taking Yahoo over, leaving Jerry Yang looking like a complete idiot once again! SO as of week 1. I am long ATVI, CC, SNDK and short YHOO, TRLG and VZ . *If you haven't watched ROLEMODELS the movie, go see it this week/end, very funny movie.

Introduction

Hello to YOU, the reader. First off, thanks for your interest in checking out our blog here with BullyBank. THIS IS THE ALPHA VERSION UNTIL OUR OFFICIAL WEBSITE (underconstruction) IS RELEASED to be est. 2009. The Bullies here are some real average joes who happen to have complete faith (and b*llz) to invest their money in the stock market during what has been coined the biggest'economic crisis' of our lifetime. With a combined investing experience of over 12 years, I've personally had my money active during the dot com era, the dot com bust, the mid 2000s rally all the way to the current turbulent bear market, yes we said it BEAR MARKET. I've seen my portfolio flourish and plummet at the same extremes. BULLYBANK will be a place where we will be sharing our ideas, opinions and ultimately our real life decisions of where we are placing our mulah today, in hopes to turn it into some real capital gains! In other words, we're putting our money where our mouth is! Will we make any money? will we make millions? or will we end up losing it all and become professional sharpy on cardboard editors? You'll have to be the spectator as we begin this real life journey! - Jotti the hot revolver

( Jotti, original Bully seen here in full business attire )